Handicapping System™

Core Principles

• You may think betting is a 50/50 proposition. It is not. Because you must pay a fee to make a bet – usually $11 for every $10 bet – you need to win 52.38 percent of the time to break even.
• Set limits on how much you will wager. Do not waver from it.
• Don’t chase losses by betting on games you didn’t plan to bet on.

Understanding the Basics

• Learn the difference between common bet types, such as point spreads and moneylines.
• Don’t just bet with the same sports book. Shop around.
• To be successful, you must identify bets that have And that takes work.
• Set up accounts at multiple places so you can bet quickly when you see value. Betting lines are not the same everywhere – look for the line that compares most favorably to your predicted game score.
• Read voraciously. Information is king.
• You can use public resources to do your own handicapping, or you can find people you like. Do your homework by comparing handicappers and their performance.
• In the NFL, injuries are a key factor in game outcomes. My book lists dozens of other game factors and assigns point values to them. Factors include: home and away, weather, travel distance, coming off a Monday night, conference matchups, etc.
• If you’re betting the NFL, start your homework on Monday morning. Look for the betting lines, check on injuries. Be diligent about keeping up to date on the games you like.
• A rule of thumb: Bet favorites early and underdogs late. More money tends to go to favorites as the game nears, raising the spreads for underdogs.
• Betting totals (over/under total points scored in a game) can be smart if you see value. You may think the bookmakers have erred in estimating weather conditions, injuries, or other factors. But only bet the over or under if you have a logical reason for doing so.
• Understand that parlays are like a lottery bet – sports books love them because they are much harder to win. While they may be fun, they are not a good value bet.
• Prop bets can be fun, but only bet them if there’s a legitimate reason to do it. Otherwise, you’re just flipping a coin.
• Learn how to buy half-points in a spread bet, and how much to pay. A half-point can make a big difference over the course of a season. My book provides details.
• The same goes for spread numbers. They have specific value. In the NFL, for instance, a point spread of 3 has the highest value, followed by 6, 7 and 14. My book explains how to use point values to help determine the strength and size of your bet.

Additional Resources

• For a deeper look into these concepts and a more detailed breakdown of factors, methodologies, and historical insights, seemy book, “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk”.